“The real problem is not whether machines think but whether men do.” —B.F. Skinner
Oxford’s 2013 study estimated that “47% of U.S. occupations were at high risk of automation.” Techno-Marxists fret that AI will wipe out jobs of all but geek aristocrats. “AI will be part of every industry,” writes Jeff Bezos, “enhancing our abilities in ways we can’t even imagine yet.” “And for those who are ready,” prophesizes Steve Pope in AI & Quantum Computing Investing 2025, “it will be the greatest transfer of wealth….”
Better and Cheaper?
Eighteenth-century Luddites wrecked mills, which eliminated 98% of weavers’ labor—but weaving jobs increased with demand for cheap cloth to replace smelly woolen undergarments. Tractors displaced farmers, but services prospered. Worldwide employment henceforth multiplied with generally rising real wages throughout innovations of railways, electricity, autos and the internet. ATMs displaced tellers but banks hired more bankers for more branches.
By 2050, projects Pran T, “the world has been fundamentally transformed not by a single technology, but by the seamless, and at times unsettling, convergence of Artificial Intelligence, Quantum Computing, and autonomous drones.”
Cesar Hamed argued AI will replace dull, dirty or dangerous work. Amazon robots grab boxes, but Amazon added 300,000 workers in a year to service robots, pack orders or solve problems. America’s first factory robots lifted hot metal auto parts. Foxconn described our 4.28 million industrial robots: “repetitive assembly tasks were now handled by robotic arms, while they aimed to retrain and redeploy the affected workers into higher-skilled roles like equipment maintenance, quality control, and research….”
Like Alexa mastering speech, AI learns to outperform humans. Pope describes mining robots that “…don’t just collect gold, they improve their digging strategy, build new tools, and multiply themselves while you sleep.” “When quantum computing hits scale,” writes Pope, “AI doesn’t just become faster; it becomes fundamentally more capable, able to solve problems that were previously intractable in logistics, drug discovery, and materials science.”
AI Enhanced Careers?
Transportation: Drivers beware! Automated vehicles will deliver pre-positioned goods more safely as human “mobility experience designers” soothe passengers with music or philosophical conversations in a “mobile sanctuary.”
White collar transitions: AI phones annoy many, so expect human support. AI chatbots may greet bank customers knowing their financial preferences and anticipating financial needs with satisfying solutions. AI writes computer programs, police reports and legal jargon, but humans command critical and creative thinking.
Blue Collar Resiliency: Machines may lay bricks or print 3D buildings, but mechanics, plumbers and electricians should survive with manual dexterity adapted to uncontrolled environments while firemen and police patrol AI augmented.
Healthcare, Eldercare and Childcare: These AI-enhanced, collaborative, expanding fields in Santa Cruz utilize human judgment, delicate touch, empathy and complicated social decisions. While helping patients, doctors’ AI scans images for cancer and suggests diagnoses. Teachers master grading with AI augmentation, but give empathy and inspiration with intelligent personal training for evolving credentialing.
AI Investments and Human Purpose
In August, AI stocks rose when traditional companies faltered. The biggest opportunities won’t be in proven innovators (Google, Nvidia) with knowable balance sheets, but in risky small stocks that develop profitable technologies or serve those who do. Consider companies that predict molecular behavior for new drugs, optimize electrical grids for efficiency, or coordinate lasers and missiles into sophisticated defense systems.
Investors need faith for growth stocks. Pran T prophecies: “Drones zip through vertical gardens, robotic snakes de-clog aquaponic systems, and AI chefs sanitize kitchens while preparing zero-waste meals.” Cesar Hamed imagines: “AI will take over mundane tasks, freeing humans to do more creative, strategic, and interpersonal work. Productivity will soar, leading to economic growth that creates demand for new goods and services, and hence new jobs.”
Hamed’s secular faith depends on human choice. Will companies help workers survive automation? Will we become lifelong learners? Self-defeated by ignorance, depression or alcoholism, will the displaced revolt with Luddite futility or just seek “Universal Basic Income” with “Robot tax”? With unprecedented wealth, will people seek shorter work weeks or shared work opportunities? Peter Theil writes: “The most valuable businesses of the coming decades will be built by entrepreneurs who seek to empower people rather than try to make them obsolete.”
Robert Arne, EA, CFP, MS, of Carpe Diem Financial Life Planning, is a Santa Cruz Mountain Certified Financial Planner who gives holistic financial advice as his client’s fee-only fiduciary. These articles are not personal financial, mortgage, tax or investment advice; consult appropriate professionals. Learn more at www.carpediem.financial.
