When locals heard that Punxsutawney Phil had forecast six more weeks of winter, they did a double take and looked at their calendar.
It feels a lot like spring.
Others reflected on what a difference a year makes. Last winter, rainfall struck with a vengeance, triggering mudslides, falling trees, power outages and millions of dollars in damages.
To date, an estimated 13.65 inches of rain has fallen for the season, compared to 58.52 inches of rain last year at this time, according to amateur weather expert, Ferd Bergholz’s website.
It could be worse.
If Los Angeles reaches Feb.19 without a significant rain event (as currently appears plausible), there will have been only a single day with more than a third of an inch of precipitation in the preceding 365 days–a full calendar year.
And it doesn’t look like there is a deluge anywhere on the horizon.
Looking out two weeks, temperatures are forecast to remain well above normal, and precipitation way below normal, according to the National Weather Service.
So what’s the deal?
Well, it’s beginning to look like California is experiencing the same “Ridiculously Resilient Ridge” of high pressure that plagued the state between 2012 and 2016.
“All indications are that the ridge will probably stick around for the foreseeable future,” said Daniel Swain, University of California, Los Angeles, climate researcher. “The present instance of prolonged, stable ridging near the West Coast appears to be one of these situations. (There is) a remarkable multi-model ensemble agreement that the large-scale flow pattern is unlikely to change much through at least mid-February (and perhaps even longer than that).”
Old-timers remember when Crosby Weather meant cold, rain and sometimes snow at what’s now called the AT&T Pro-Am Golf Tournament in Pebble Beach. A few weekends ago, the golfers played before massive crowds in summer-like 80-degree temperatures.
From a scientific perspective, experts believe the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a natural phenomenon that causes alternating periods of enhanced and suppressed precipitation across the globe, is the culprit.
Swain explained that the MJO reached its highest amplitude in recorded history and appears to be “stuck” in a phase that favors strong West Coast ridging and warm/dry California conditions.
The one potential bright side is that California’s seasonal precipitation is often dictated by the occurrence of just a handful of strong storms each year.
“It’s still possible that a robust storm sequence in late February or another “Miracle March” could bring a remarkable turnaround in short order,” Swain said. “But while that possibility remains on the table, the odds are long.”
